Dollar Light on Data, Heavy on QE3 and Downgrade Speculation
Some would consider this past week’s close a boon for the dollar because the selling pressure eased up into the close. In reality, the drop in volatility is neither beneficial nor detrimental to the currency. We have simply seen the market hit a saturation point for fundamental warnings.
Weekly Currency Trading Forecast 07.18.11
- US Dollar Risks Further Declines on Debt Ceiling, Fed Policy
- Euro’s Boost from a Weak Dollar Won’t Quiet Crisis Fears
- Japanese Yen Outlook Hinges on Broader Market Sentiment, Data Flow
- British Pound Direction Contingent on Bank of England Minutes
- Canadian Dollar To Strengthen Further On BoC Rate Expectations
- Australian Dollar to Fall on Diminishing Rate Hike Expectations
- Rebound in Sentiment to Challenge Kiwi Record Highs- Traders Eye CPI
- Gold Rally Poised to Continue Amid Rising Inflation Expectations
Rebound in Sentiment to Challenge Kiwi Record Highs- Traders Eye CPI
The kiwi advanced more than 0.85% this week hitting record highs just above 0.85-figure after data showed that growth on the isle-nation surpassed even the most optimistic estimates. Wednesday’s 1Q GDP figures bested forecasts with a print of 0.8% q/q and 1.4% y/y with both figures nearly tripling expectations. The kiwi surged on the news as rate hike expectations climbed on speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would show increased willingness to move on interest rates as the central bank sees a faster domestic recovery.
Australian Dollar to Fall on Diminishing Rate Hike Expectations
The Australian Dollar had a particularly disappointing week, losing ground against every major currency, as it fell the most against the safe havens, down 3.61 percent against the Swiss Franc, 2.88 percent against the Japanese Yen, and 0.96 percent against the U.S. Dollar. Broader market sentiment took hold of the antipodean currency this week, as the Aussie sports the highest overnight benchmark interest rate among the major currencies; with the debt crises ramping up in the Euro-zone and the United States, market participants sought have away from risky assets such as the Australian data.
